By Johannes Buheitel, PhD
I was never the best car passenger. It’s not that I can’t trust others but there is something quite unsettling about letting someone else do the steering, while not having any power over the situation yourself. On Tuesday, November 8th, I had exactly this feeling, but all I could do was to sit back and let it play out on my TV set. Of course, you all know by now, I’m talking about the past presidential election, in which the American people (this excludes me) were tasked with casting their ballots in support for either former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or real estate mogul and former reality TV personality Donald Trump. And for all that are bit behind on their Twitter feed (spoiler alert!): Donald Trump will be the 45th president of the United States of America following his inauguration on January 20th, 2017. Given the controversies around Trump and all the issues he stands for, there are many things that can, have been and will be said about the implications for people living in the US but also elsewhere. But for us scientists, the most pressing question that is being asked left and right is an almost existential one: What happens to science and its funding in the US?
The short answer is: We don’t know yet. Not only has there been no meaningful discussion about these issues in public (one of the few exceptions being that energy policy question by undecided voter-turned-meme Ken Bone), but, even more worryingly, there is just not enough hard info on specific policies from the future Trump administration to go on. And that means, we’re left to just make assumptions based on the handful of words Mr. Trump and his allies have shared during his campaign. And I’m afraid, those paint a dire picture of the future of American science.
Trump has not only repeatedly mentioned in the past that he did not believe in the scientific evidence around climate change (even going as far as calling it a Chinese hoax), but also reminded us of his position just recently, when he appointed known climate change skeptic Myron Ebell to the transition team of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). He has furthermore endorsed the widespread (and, of course misguided) belief that vaccines cause autism. His vice president, Mike Pence, publicly doubted that smoking can cause cancer as late as in 2000, and called evolution “controversial”.
According to specialists like Michael Lubell from the American Physical Society, all of these statements are evidence that “Trump will be the first anti-science president we have ever had.” But what does this mean for us in the trenches? The first thing you should know is that science funding is more or less a function of the overall US discretionary budget, which is in the hand of the United States Congress, says Matt Hourihan, director of the R&D Budget and Policy Program for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). This would be a relief, if Congress wasn’t, according to Rush Holt, president of the AAAS, on a “sequestration path that […] will reduce the fraction of the budget for discretionary funding.” In numbers, this means that when the current budget deal expires next year, spending caps might drop by another 2.3%. Holt goes on to say that a reversal of this trend has always been unlikely, even if the tables were turned, which doesn’t make the pill go down any easier. Congress might raise the caps, as they have done before, but this is of course not a safe bet, and could translate to a tight year for US science funding.
So when the budget is more or less out of the hands of Donald Trump, what power does he actually possess over matters of research funding? Well, the most powerful political instrument that the president can implement is the executive order. But also this power is not unlimited and could for example not be used to unilaterally reverse the fundamentals of climate policy, said David Goldston from the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) during a Webinar hosted by the AAAS shortly after the election. Particularly, backing out of the Paris agreement, as Trump has threatened to do, would take at least four years and requires support by Congress (which, admittedly, is in Republican hand). And while the president might be able to “scoop out” the Paris deal by many smaller changes to US climate policy, this is unlikely to happen, at least not to a substantial degree, believes Rush Holt. The administration will soon start to feel push-back by the public, which, so Holt during the AAAS Webinar, is indeed not oblivious about the various impacts of climate change, like frequent droughts or the decline of fisheries in the country. There was further consensus among the panelists that science education funding will probably not be deeply affected. First, because this matter usually has bipartisan support, but also because only about 10% of the states’ education funding actually comes from the federal budget.
So, across the board, experts seem to be a reluctantly positive. Whether this is just a serious case of denial or panic control, we don’t know, but even Trump himself has been caught calling for “investment in research and development across a broad landscape of academia,” and even seems to be a fan of space exploration. Our job as scientists is now, to keep our heads high, keep doing our research to the best of our abilities but also to keep reaching out to the public, invite people to be part of the conversation, and convincing them of the power of scientific evidence. Or to say it with Rush Holt’s words: “We must make clear that an official cannot wish away what is known about climate change, gun violence, opioid addiction, fisheries depletion, or any other public issue illuminated by research.”